Regular readers used to prolific posting are doubtless disappointed in the rather thin postings over the past several months. I do apologize but plead preoccupation with the Taxpayer Bill of Rights Campaign (TABOR) that concluded with the November 3rd election. Between work and the campaign, I didn’t have much time or desire left over for blogging. Since November 3, I’ve been through a period of recovery during which I’ve regained my taste for anything political. Those who’ve been through a campaign will understand the torpor that follows election day.
For non-Maine readers, TABOR went down to defeat – soundly so. The referendum managed to gathered only 40% of the vote. It was disappointing but not altogether unexpected in the campaign’s closing days. We had gone from a substantial lead in all polls in the second week of October to trailing by election day. The margin of victory did surprise me, however.
There are several distinct reasons for the defeat which, when combined, put us down for the count.
First, the turnout for an off-year election was unusually high – around 55% of the electorate.
Second, the high turnout was largely the work of Referendum Question 1, which was a “people’s veto” of the gay marriage bill recently passed by the Legislature. This ballot question attracted national attention and huge amounts of money, largely on the pro-gay marriage side. This means that every motivated leftist came out to vote against Question 1 and, not incidentally, vote “no” on TABOR.
Third, the TABOR campaign was outspent around 15-1. It was almost all union money – the Maine State Employees Union (SEIU), the Maine Education Association, the National Education Association and the national SEIU, straight from Washington DC. The other side spend nearly $1 million on TV alone, not to mention the organized opposition from everyone at every level of government.
Fourth, there is the simple fact of Maine’s economy: out of a population of 1.3 million, around 90,000 are public-sector employees, all concerned with their own continued employment. Include voting spouses and you roughly double that number. Fully one-quarter of Maine’s population is on Medicaid, complements of the Legislature’s poor policy decisions with the Dirigo Health program. In a recessionary year, everyone who’s on the public dime will fight to keep what crumbs they currently receive – regardless of the economic cost. When the ship’s sinking, people aren’t thinking about a long-term future.
Fifth, our opponents – from the Maine Center for Economic Policy to their various union allies – were willing to lie continuously about TABOR and about Colorado. Lying – backed up by millions of dollars – works. The anti-TABOR ads were not enlightened and made no attempt to appeal to the better angels of our nature. To the contrary, it was entirely devoted to frightening the electorate. Unfortunately for TABOR, fear is primal and difficult to overcome with reason.
So, whence TABOR? I suspect that it’s over for the foreseeable future. At this point, the number of people riding in the wagon is perilously close to those pulling it. I fear that the young and productive will continue to leave Maine and take their energy, families and assets with them. That’s a gloomy appraisal, I suppose. But if power is the goal, then this scenario suits the left perfectly: prosperity is unimportant – dependence and servility is.
But I’ve only just begun to fight. Stay tuned.
