Matters in Pakistan continue to go from bad to worse. According to CENTCOM, the next two weeks could well determine Pakistan’s fate. From FOX News:
Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. Central Command, has told U.S. officials the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive, FOX News has learned.
“The Pakistanis have run out of excuses” and are “finally getting serious” about combating the threat from Taliban and Al Qaeda extremists operating out of Northwest Pakistan, the general added.But Petraeus also said wearily that “we’ve heard it all before” from the Pakistanis and he is looking to see concrete action by the government to destroy the Taliban in the next two weeks before determining the United States’ next course of action, which is presently set on propping up the Pakistani government and military with counterinsurgency training and foreign aid.
Petraeus made these assessment in talks with lawmakers and Obama administration officials this week, according to individuals familiar with the discussions.
They said Petraeus and senior administration officials believe the Pakistani army, led by Chief of Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, is “superior” to the civilian government, led by President Ali Zardari, and could conceivably survive even if Zardari’s government falls to the Taliban.
A critical question is whether the Pak regular army will engage the Taliban in their strongholds like the Swat Valley using credible counter-insurgency tactics. But an even more basic question is whether the army will continue to cohere as a fighting force or disintegrate due to Taliban PSYOPs or infiltration. From ThreatsWatch.org:
Pakistani military leaders, as we noted in today’s Daily Briefing (April 30, 2009), are concerned that “if it ratchets up fight against the Taliban too much, the Army itself may disintegrate.” See below, including a link to our earlier analysis on the effectiveness of al-Qaeda’s psychological operations targeting rank and file members of the Pakistani Army to “come home to Islam” and abandon their roles as servants to the polytheist American infidels. . . .
The phone lines into New Delhi should be lit in the mean time. India is a much more natural American ally, sharing more of the same values, principles and systems. India is more stable, more reliable and does not suffer from an acute case of societal ‘schizophrenia.’ And, critically important, there is no question whether we share, face and defend against a common terrorist enemy.
As we’ve discussed in prior posts (here and here), India has the most immediate stake in the situation and the most to lose. We can only hope that the phone lines are indeed well lit into New Delhi and that there are contingency plans to secure Pakistan’s nuclear devices.
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