We’ve noted in these pages Russia’s stunning demographic collapse and its effect on the Russian army, which is curently converting from a mass-mobilization formation to a smaller professional force. This is almost entirely due to demographics – there are simply not enough young men to conscript for a mass-mobilization force.
Clearly, George Will has been reading this blog, because he’s written a column on Russian demographics, suggesting that our president is wasting his time when he actually treats Russia as if it were a growing country and threat.
The Soviet Union was a Third World nation with First World missiles. It had, as Russia still has, an essentially hunter-gatherer economy, based on extraction industries — oil, gas, minerals, furs. Other than vodka, for what manufactured good would you look to Russia? Caviar? It is extracted from the fish that manufacture it.
Today, in a world bristling with new threats, the president suggests addressing an old one — Russia’s nuclear arsenal. It remains potentially dangerous, particularly if a portion of it falls into nonstate hands. But what is the future of the backward and backsliding kleptocratic thugocracy that is Vladimir Putin’s Russia?
Putin — ignore the human Potemkin village (Dmitry Medvedev) who currently occupies the presidential office — must be amazed and amused that America’s president wants to treat Russia as a great power. Obama should instead study pertinent demographic trends.
In fact, we’d do well to study Chinese demographics as well. Again, as I’ve noted, China’s long-term prospects stink too. When you mix the ‘one-child policy’ with a Confucian culture, what you get is sex-selection abortion and millions of men for whom there are no women.
I’m looking forward to Will’s upcoming column on Chinese demographics. Right, George?
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