The Russian news service Novosti reported late yesterday that Hope ‘n Change sent Russian President Medvedev a letter several weeks back offering to shelve the anti-ballistic missile system planned for Poland and the Czech Republic in exchange for some undefined Russian ‘help’ in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue.
The precise contents of the letter remain unclear, however. News reports are fragmentary. The Moscow Times in a ‘combined reports’ offering provides little more than the Novosti report.
Assuming that the Eastern European missile shield is now on the table – a big assumption, even for Hope ‘n Change – one wonders what we get in return. Let’s look at some facts:
First, Russia is deeply involved with Iran. They’ve been providing nuclear technology to the Iranians right along and they’ve also entered into an agreement to sell the mullahs a sophisticated air defense system that would, presumably, make any military action against Iran more expensive.
Second, the governments of Poland and the Czech republic have stood in solidarity with the U.S. in the post-cold war world and they burned up serious political capital over the ABM proposal. Are we leaving them high and dry? The Russians still view their former Warsaw Pact satellites as within their exclusive sphere of influence – a fact that makes the Poles, Czechs and the Baltic states extremely nervous.
Third, what ‘help’ will the Russians be giving us – and is it confined to Iran? I suspect that part of any deal will be a logistical lifeline to Afghanistan, which has become a critical problem. But think about it – the Russians are the very people who’ve been shafting us in Central Asia over Manas AFB. They have de facto control over our logistics as it is.
Fourth, what would be the ‘deep game’ in any deal? Traditionally, the Russians have been better at this than the U.S.
I’m feeling something running down my leg – but it’s something far different than Chris Matthew’s tingly feeling.
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