Count this one as a definite ‘maybe’.
Originally alerted by Cannoneer No. 4, I’ve been writing about the ongoing difficulties we’ve had resupplying our forces in Afghanistan. Because the overland route from the Pak through the Khyber has become tenuous, we’ve been enlarging the ‘cracker line’ through central Asia. I’ve already discussed Russia’s attempt to bribe the government of Kyrgyzstan into ordering the closure of Manas AFB. And some news outlets are reporting that the Kyrgzak PM has accepted a $2 billion bribe after a trip to Moscow.
But it may be that the bidding war has just begun. From EurasiaNet:
Act Two in Kyrgyzstan’s new drama, tentatively titled The Perils of Manas, is set in the Kyrgyz parliament. But the real action is playing out backstage.
The Kyrgyz government on February 4 submitted a draft law on closing an American air base at Manas to parliament for debate. There was no immediate word as to when legislators would take up the bill. The government move came less than 24 hours after President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, apparently acting at the behest of the Kremlin, signaled his intention to close the US facility, located outside of the capital Bishkek. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The US Embassy in Bishkek maintains that discussions about the future of the base are ongoing, and Kyrgyz opposition parties and Western diplomats say they would not bet on the base being decommissioned just yet.
In my earlier piece, I’d wondered about the paltry amount of the Russian bribe. And it appears that the ‘negotiation’ is still in play:
Meanwhile, in Washington, Pentagon officials are not panicking yet. The assumption inside the beltway appears to be that the current uncertainty surrounding Manas is resolvable. “Whether or not we pay more money is certainly a subject of discussion . . . but that shouldn’t be a surprise,” Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said during a February 3 briefing. “In any negotiation, money is an issue.”
On the surface, money certainly seems to be motivating Kyrgyzstan’s action. The announcement of the intention to close Manas came after Russia officially extended a $2.15 billion aid package to Bishkek. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On February 4, however, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Grigorii Karasin, denied speculation that the Kremlin had bought Bakiyev’s administration. The Kyrgyz government’s decision was “absolutely independent and predictable,” the Interfax news agency quoted Karasin as saying.
The comment about an ‘independent and predictable’ decision is probably an expression of wishful thinking that could be translated as ‘will President Bakiyev stay bought?’ I rather suspect that the drama will continue.
Meanwhile, as I wrote in my posting ‘Overland to Afghanistan’, the U.S. continues to work on an alternative overland route through Central Asia with a base in Kazakhstan.
It ain’t over yet. While some are touting this development as some kind of defeat for Hope ‘n Change, I really don’t view it that way. This balancing act has been going on for years. It’s become more acute, however, as Pakistan continues to come unglued.
The real question, however, is whether we can create an overland supply route without some kind of Russian assistance. The good people at Stratfor think we’ll need the Russians. For my part, I’m not sure what CentComm has up his very able sleeve.
