As I’ve discussed in prior posts, there have been heavy rumors about the U.S. establishing an alternative overland supply route through the Caucasus to Afghanistan because of Pakistan’s increasing instability. The rumors are apparently true. From today’s Moscow Times:
ALMATY, Kazakhstan — The United States is in talks with Kazakhstan about using the Central Asian state as a transit point for supplies to NATO troops in Afghanistan, U.S. Central Command chief General David Petraeus said Wednesday.
NATO officials have already said the alliance wants to divert some supplies from the traditional route through Pakistan, where insurgent attacks have become more intense.
Petraeus met Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev on a visit to the country Wednesday. “We have discussed Kazakhstan’s contribution to the so-called Northern Transit Network, which would enable us to supply the Afghanistan troops,” he told reporters after the meeting.
He said the plan would not require the establishment of a military base in the country.
This plan doubtless will require a permanent U.S. naval presence in the Black Sea, a base on the Georgian coast and a clear route to the Caspian ports in Azerbaijan, then across the Caspian to Kazakhstan. The geography is a little confusing so here’s the map:
If the U.S. can pull this off, it not only provides a new supply route but it also binds these former Soviet republics to the U.S. in a security alliance that undercuts the Russia-led Collective Security Treat Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). As noted in the Asia Times,
Not only will the US have succeeded in keeping the CSTO and the SCO from poking their noses into the Afghan cauldron, it will also have made these organizations largely irrelevant to regional security when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two key players in Central Asia, simply step out of the ambit of these organizations and directly deal with the US and NATO.
Of note, though, is the good general’s comment about not needing a base. I’m not sure what to make of it.
But, not a bad day’s work if Petraeus can pull it off.
H/T to Cannoneer No. 4 on the entire subject.
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The plan won’t require the establishment of any new base in Kazakhstan. We’ll just use existing Host Nation bases, facilities, and installations.
Which they will charge us a pretty penny for, with a discount for the opportunity to poke the Bear in the eye. Almaty Airport will make a fair substitute for Manas. They’ll give us some real estate around the runway, some ramp space, a hangar if we’re lucky, and room to park trailers and put up prefab buildings. You’d be amazed at what kind of billeting and office spaces can be made out of shipping containers.
This Northern Transit Network will be a huge Intermodal shipping scheme, most of it using the existing civilian transportation infrastructure, injecting much needed cash into Host Nation economies. There will be US military and civilian contractors at the intermodal transshipment points, and a big warehouse complex somewhere north of Afghanistan. And none of it goes through Russia.
Afghanistan: The Logistical Alternative