In ‘A Surge at the Border‘ I discussed Michael Chertoff’s epiphany about the security of our southern border. Now we find out that DoD thinks that Mexico is just about as likely as Pakistan to suffer a complete governmental collapse.
In the 2008 Joint Operating Environment, the United States Joint Forces Command warns about a worst-case scenario that is very bad indeed:
In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no guarantee they could gain control of the weapons and with the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used.
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.
At the same time, the El Paso Times is reporting that the Mexican army has sent an estimated 2,000 troops to Juárez as part of a rotation even as the death toll surpassed 35 so far this year. The army is in Juarez because the corrupt police force is unable to cope. But think about the number of dead: 35 in just the first 14 days of 2009. How much worse can it get?
What’s worrisome is the accumulating, multiple pressures on our economy and security. We can deal with a crisis here and there, but do we have the resources to deal with systemic, worldwide crises that directly threaten the country’s security? What would we do with a failed, hostile state on our very border?
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