Great power maneuvering in Central Asia has long been known as the ‘Great Game.’ During the heyday of the British Empire, for instance, Russia was a dedicated agent provocateur in India and Afghanistan as both Britain and Russia looked for ways to undermine the other’s influence in that strategic area of the world.
Russia, India and China all view the area as within their sphere of influence. And after 9/11, the U.S. has played the game as well, establishing Manas Air Base in the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan, which is in strategic proximity both to China and Afghanistan. Logistically speaking, our position in Afghanistan is precarious because of the geography – most of our supplies come overland through Pakistan and the Khyber.
But that supply route has become tenuous of late, with ‘insurgent’ attacks on supply convoys in Pakistan. As reported recently in the Asia Times, rumor is that the U.S. is seeking an alternative overland route from the Caucasus through the ‘Stans’ to avoid Pakistan altogether. And an indispensable part of that strategy would include Kyrgyzstan and Manas.
But several news sources are now reporting that Kyrgyzstan has decided to evict the U.S. from Manas AFB in return for $2.5 billion in Russian aid. From today’s UK Telegraph:
President Kurmanbek Bakiyev is said to be preparing to announce the closure of Manas airbase, which acts as the main air hub for military supplies and troops travelling into Afghanistan.
Coalition forces have already been forced to seek alternative supply lines into Afghanistan after the main Khyber Pass road from Pakistan has seen repeated closures after attacks from Taliban militants.
A Russian newspaper reported that Manas would be closed in return for £1.3 billion of Russian investment.
The US State Department said it was not aware of any plans to close the base, but sources close to the Kyrgyz president said he will announce the closure before visiting Moscow later this month.
Manas airbase, 20 miles from the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, was established in 2001 as US forces helped topple the Taliban regime in nearby Afghanistan.
It now holds around 1,000 military personnel, but despite bringing in millions of dollars in rent, the US presence is unpopular with many in the country.
Both Russia and China have also been angered by the presence of a US base in a strategic region they consider to be within their sphere of influence.
Kyrgyzstan has used the strategic importance of the base to try to gain funding from the US and Russia, prompting speculation that the latest announcement is an attempt to negotiate better terms.
While the Telegraph is reporting the story in cautious tones, both the Moscow Times and Reuters are reporting the planned eviction as fact.
If these reports are true, it would deal a serious blow to U.S. policy in the area, not to mention our logistical efforts in Afghanistan. But what’s puzzling about the story is the paltry amount of the Russian bribe – it seems unlikely to me that the U.S. would permit itself to be outbid in this way. This leaves me wondering whether there isn’t more to the story than first meets the eye.
