When our intelligence services aren’t otherwise engaged in providing faulty estimates about most of the important matters of the present age (think the collapse of the Soviet economy or Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation for starters), they wax clairvoyant. Beginning in 1997, the National Intelligence Council (now a part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence – the new intelligence super czar) has kicked out reports predicting the world in 2010, 2015, 2020 and now 2025.
Each report proposes to read the historical tea leaves and predict the future world. Each iteration is more detailed and draws in more contributors. The list of contributors for the new 2025 report reads like a who’s who of the Washington establishment – which makes me uneasy from the start.
The new report is entitled ‘Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World’ and makes for interesting reading. It’s just vague enough to allow several possible conclusions for each set of issues. If this is the way spooks write reports for decision makers, it’s small wonder that no one can rely on them.
The report forecasts a demolition of the post-WWII order (didn’t that already happen?) with new players like China, India and Brazil taking their places in international affairs. While the report forecasts that there will be a continued ‘wealth transfer’ from West to East, the report doesn’t really elaborate on the nature of this transfer. In Adam Smith’s world, parties exchange money for goods and services of similar value so that all participants become richer. Borrowing, however, is presumably a different matter.
As to the specific players, India, China and Brazil may grow in power or influence or not, depending on factors as variable as population, politics and resources. The report predicts possible upheavals in all three countries yet seems to view the U.S. more statically – retaining its power and influence relative to the emerging players but forced to behave in a more constrained way due to the emergence of other powers.
Both Fernandez at Belmont Club and Westhawk note the resigned tone that permeates the report – I tend to agree that the report seems to imply that all upheavals will take place outside North America while also implying that the U.S.’s position will become more equivocal.
In trying to make an assessment, however, history is the most severe teacher. And history teaches me that – to use a tech metaphor – nations that have the right software will always prevail over nations that have hardware. By software I mean the politics, institutions and culture that nuture flexible and creative people who can marshall resources to solve problems. Hardware-rich nations (those possessing vast resources) have, time and again, failed to thrive because of human factors like corruption, political repression and the inability to assimilate different cultures.
One only need think of Mexico as an example. Rich in resources, Mexico has failed to thrive due to its corruption, political instability and economic mismanagement. I can only hope and pray that we Americans don’t forget the national traits that have made us preeminent: thrift, industry, honesty, creativity and strong religious faith.
But the report is worth a read, despite its apparent contradictions and equivocations. And then there are all those earlier reports to compare and contrast.
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